---
title: "Survey: AI researchers estimated 18% average probability of extinction risk"
url: https://www.parallelquant.com/posts/survey-ai-researchers-estimated-18-average-probability-of-extinction-ris-cd2f4f
source_name: "The Decoder"
source_url: https://the-decoder.com/nearly-one-in-five-ai-researchers-already-expected-an-extinction-scenario-from-ai-back-in-2024/
published: 2026-09-16T10:20:02.000Z
topics: ["research", "policy"]
publisher: "Parallel Quant"
---

# Survey: AI researchers estimated 18% average probability of extinction risk

*2026-09-16 · Source: [The Decoder](https://the-decoder.com/nearly-one-in-five-ai-researchers-already-expected-an-extinction-scenario-from-ai-back-in-2024/)*

A 2024 survey of more than 1,500 leading AI researchers found an average estimated probability of an AI-driven extinction scenario of 18%. The figure has resurfaced amid renewed debate after an Anthropic researcher's viral tweet and warnings from an OpenAI researcher and a former DeepMind researcher.

**Why it matters:** This adds hard numbers to a debate largely driven by public statements from lab executives — it suggests the concern isn't confined to a few outspoken leaders but is shared, at meaningful levels, across the broader research community, predating recent slowdown calls from Amodei and others.

**Topics:** research, policy

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Read the original: https://the-decoder.com/nearly-one-in-five-ai-researchers-already-expected-an-extinction-scenario-from-ai-back-in-2024/
Canonical: https://www.parallelquant.com/posts/survey-ai-researchers-estimated-18-average-probability-of-extinction-ris-cd2f4f
Published by Parallel Quant — https://www.parallelquant.com