Analyst: China's EUV lithography trails ASML's 2004-era tech

An industry analyst assesses that China's extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography technology remains far behind Western equipment makers, comparing its current state to where ASML stood in 2004. The analysis pushes back on rumors that Chinese toolmakers can already produce immersion lithography scanners in volume.

Why it matters: Advanced lithography is the key bottleneck constraining China's ability to domestically produce the cutting-edge chips needed for frontier AI training, so this timeline estimate matters for how long export controls stay effective. A roughly two-decade gap suggests China's chip self-sufficiency push is a much longer-term project than some recent headlines have implied.