Survey: AI researchers estimated 18% average probability of extinction risk

A 2024 survey of more than 1,500 leading AI researchers found an average estimated probability of an AI-driven extinction scenario of 18%. The figure has resurfaced amid renewed debate after an Anthropic researcher's viral tweet and warnings from an OpenAI researcher and a former DeepMind researcher.

Why it matters: This adds hard numbers to a debate largely driven by public statements from lab executives — it suggests the concern isn't confined to a few outspoken leaders but is shared, at meaningful levels, across the broader research community, predating recent slowdown calls from Amodei and others.